The Decline of the Welfare State: Demography and Globalization (CESifo Book Series)  By  Assaf Razin, Efraim Sadka
2005 | 144 Pages | ISBN: 0262182440 | PDF | 2 MB
In The Decline of the Welfare State, Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka use a                  political economy framework to analyze the effects of aging populations, migration,                  and globalization on the deteriorating system of financing welfare state benefits as                  we know them. Their timely analysis, supported by a unified theoretical framework                  and empirical findings, demonstrates how the combined forces of demographic change                  and globalization will make it impossible for the welfare state to maintain itself                  on its present scale.In much of the developed world, the proportion of the                  population aged 60 and over is expected to rise dramatically over the coming years                  -- from 35 percent in 2000 to a projected 66 percent in 2050 in the European Union                  and from 27 percent to 47 percent in the United States -- which may necessitate                  higher tax burdens and greater public debt to maintain national pension systems at                  current levels. Low-skill migration produces additional strains on welfare-state                  financing because such migrants typically receive benefits that exceed what they pay                  in taxes. Higher capital taxation, which could potentially be used to finance                  welfare benefits, is made unlikely by international tax competition brought about by                  globalization of the capital market. Applying a political economy model and drawing                  on empirical data from the EU and the United States, the authors draw an                  unconventional and provocative conclusion from these developments. They argue that                  the political pressure from both aging and migrant populations indirectly generates                  political processes that favor trimming rather than expanding the welfare state. The                  combined pressures of aging, migration, and globalization will shift the balance of                  political power and generate public support from the majority of the voting                  population for cutting back traditional welfare state benefits.

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